In this article, we posit an equity tail risk scenario in which the real interest rate experiences a prolonged increase from its current level. We view this scenario as particularly relevant given the proposed policies of the incoming presidential administration, which is emphasizing significant demand side and supply side stimulus. Because a substantial fiscal stimulus can result in higher inflation when unemployment is low, the Fed may react by letting real yields escalate relative to growth. Therefore, while we allow for higher growth in our scenario, we do not assume a one-for-one translation from the interest rate to the growth rate.

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El Autor

Jamil Baz

Co-head of Client Solutions and Analytics

Steve Sapra

Analista de investigación cuantitativa, Análisis de clientes

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PIMCO Europe Ltd
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+44 (0) 20 3640 1000

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Tel: + 41 44 512 49 10

PIMCO Europe Ltd (número de empresa 2604517) está autorizada y regulada por la Financial Conduct Authority (12 Endeavour Square, London E20 1JN) en el Reino Unido. Los servicios ofrecidos por PIMCO Europe Ltd no están disponibles para inversores individuales, que no deben confiar en esta comunicación, sino ponerse en contacto con su asesor financiero. PIMCO Europe GmbH (Compañía No. 192083, Seidlstr. 24-24a, 80335 Munich, Alemania), la sucursal italiana de PIMCO Europe GmbH (Compañía No. 10005170963), la sucursal irlandesa de PIMCO Europe GmbH  (Compañía No. 909462), la sucursal de PIMCO Europe GmbH en el Reino Unido (número de empresa BR022803), la sucursal española de PIMCO Europe GmbH (NIF W2765338E) y están autorizadas y reguladas por la Autoridad Federal de Supervisión Financiera alemana (BaFin) (Marie- Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main) en Alemania de acuerdo con el artículo 32 de la Ley de Banca de Alemania (KWG). Las sucursales italiana, irlandesa, británicas y española están, asimismo, supervisadas por: (1) en el caso de la sucursal italiana, la Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB), de acuerdo con el artículo 27 de la Ley Financiera Refundida de Italia; (2) en el caso de la sucursal irlandesa: el Banco Central de Irlanda, de conformidad con el Reglamento 43 de la Unión Europea de 2017 relativo a los mercados de instrumentos financieros, en su versión modificada; (3) en el caso de la sucursal del Reino Unido: la Autoridad de Conducta Financiera; y (4) en el caso de la sucursal española, la Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) de conformidad con las obligaciones contempladas en los artículos 168 y 203 al 224, así como con las obligaciones contenidas en el Título V, Sección I de la Ley del Mercado de Valores y en los artículos 111, 114 y 117 del Real Decreto 217/2008, respectivamente. Los servicios prestados por PIMCO Europe GmbH están disponibles únicamente para clientes profesionales, tal como se define este término en el artículo 67, apartado 2 de la Ley del Mercado de Valores alemana (WpHG). No están abiertos a inversores individuales, quienes no deberían tomar decisiones basándose en el contenido de esta comunicación. PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH (registrada en Suiza, número de empresa CH-020.4.038.582-2). Los servicios ofrecidos por PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH no están disponibles para inversores individuales, que no deben confiar en esta comunicación sino ponerse en contacto con su asesor financiero. Ninguna parte de esta publicación puede ser reproducida de ninguna forma, o mencionada en cualquier otra publicación, sin permiso expreso por escrito. PIMCO es una marca comercial propiedad de Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. en Estados Unidos y el resto del mundo. © 2021, PIMCO.

This paper contains hypothetical analysis based on a set of assumptions that may or may not develop over time. Results shown may not be attained and should not be construed as the only possibilities that exist. Different weightings in the asset allocation illustration will produce different results. Actual results will vary and are subject to change with market conditions. There is no guarantee that results will be achieved. The analysis reflected in this information is based upon data at time of analysis. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.

Return assumptions are for illustrative purposes only and are not a prediction or a projection of return. Return assumption is an estimate of what investments may earn on average over the long term. Actual returns may be higher or lower than those shown and may vary substantially over shorter time periods.

No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those shown. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have several inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual performance and are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. There are frequently sharp differences between simulated performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular account, product or strategy. In addition, since trades have not actually been executed, simulated results cannot account for the impact of certain market risks such as lack of liquidity. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or the implementation of any specific investment strategy, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated results and all of which can adversely affect actual results.

All investments contain risk and may lose value. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and the current low interest rate environment increases this risk. Current reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic and industry conditions. Swaps are a type of derivative; swaps are increasingly subject to central clearing and exchange-trading. Swaps that are not centrally cleared and exchange-traded may be less liquid than exchange-traded instruments. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks, such as liquidity, interest rate, market, credit, management and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous. Investing in derivatives could lose more than the amount invested. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision.

This material contains the current opinions of the manager such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

PIMCO provides services only to qualified institutions and investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. | Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660 is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. | PIMCO Europe Ltd (Company No. 2604517) and PIMCO Europe Ltd - Italy (Company No. 07533910969) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf, London E14 5HS) in the UK. The Italy branch is additionally regulated by the CONSOB in accordance with Article 27 of the Italian Consolidated Financial Act. PIMCO Europe Ltd services and products are available only to professional clients as defined in the Financial Conduct Authority’s Handbook and are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication. | PIMCO Deutschland GmbH (Company No. 192083, Seidlstr. 24-24a, 80335 Munich, Germany) is authorised and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) (Marie-Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main) in Germany in accordance with Section 32 of the German Banking Act (KWG). The services and products provided by PIMCO Deutschland GmbH are available only to professional clients as defined in Section 31a para. 2 German Securities Trading Act (WpHG). They are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication. | PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH (registered in Switzerland, Company No. CH-020.4.038.582-2), Brandschenkestrasse 41, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland, Tel: + 41 44 512 49 10. 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The asset management services and investment products are not available to persons where provision of such services and products is unauthorised. | PIMCO Australia Pty Ltd ABN 54 084 280 508, AFSL 246862 (PIMCO Australia). This publication has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of investors. Before making an investment decision, investors should obtain professional advice and consider whether the information contained herein is appropriate having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. | PIMCO Japan Ltd (Toranomon Towers Office 18F, 4-1-28, Toranomon, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan 105-0001) Financial Instruments Business Registration Number is Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 382. PIMCO Japan Ltd is a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and The Investment Trusts Association, Japan. Investment management products and services offered by PIMCO Japan Ltd are offered only to persons within its respective jurisdiction, and are not available to persons where provision of such products or services is unauthorized. Valuations of assets will fluctuate based upon prices of securities and values of derivative transactions in the portfolio, market conditions, interest rates and credit risk, among others. Investments in foreign currency denominated assets will be affected by foreign exchange rates. There is no guarantee that the principal amount of the investment will be preserved, or that a certain return will be realized; the investment could suffer a loss. All profits and losses incur to the investor. 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©2017, PIMCO.

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